Football is arguably among the most popular sports in the USA, so it’s no surprise to see many NFL football betting sites on the internet. A lot of people visit them and place wagers, hoping to make some money.
The reality is that most of them lose in the long run. It’s not easy to find success in NFL betting and this article will go through several tips and tricks that will help you improve your results.
Evaluate Instead of Guessing
The most common mistake of most people is that they believe that NFL betting is about guessing the outcomes of the games. That’s a huge mistake, as you could often be correct in your guess and still lose money.
That’s because you need to learn how to evaluate the implied probability and base every single wager on the math behind sports betting.
The NFL odds of the bookmakers represent a certain probability. You have to place money on outcomes that are more likely to happen than the price suggests to be profitable in the long term.
Like in every other investment, you need to have a positive expectation for the cash you put in there. It’s easier said than done, but this is the mindset you need to adopt to have any chance of making money by betting on the NFL.
Put in the Work
If you think that you are just going to open a random online bookmaker, check the NFL prices and find something cool, you are about to lose a lot of money. Building a successful strategy that can consistently recognize valuable bets is hard.
It takes time and energy. Here are some of the steps that you need to follow to succeed:
- Follow the NFL: you need to stay aware of all the changes, the form of the players, the latest news and everything else that is important. Fortunately, mainstream media like ESPN can provide all the information required in one place.
- Learn the NFL betting markets: there are different betting markets available for NFL. It’s essential to learn how each of them works and find the options that suit you best.
- Utilize the stats: while it’s close to impossible to beat the bookmakers based only on statistical analysis, ignoring the numbers completely is a suicide. Make sure to go through the most important data, as it will give you a good overview of each NFL game.
- Follow the team news: a simple check for injuries and suspensions before each NFL game takes several minutes and could bring you a ton of cash in the long run.
Keep Records and Go through Them Every Once in a While
You should record every NFL bet you place alongside other info like the market, the stake, the odds, and the outcome. Once you have a solid number of entries, you can go back to them and explore your weak and strong sides.
This will help you optimize your betting patterns. You should obviously stick to NFL betting markets where you have more success and try to cut those that are not working for you.
Don’t obsess with the numbers, though, as you need a solid sample size in order to reach a meaningful conclusion. Ten or even twenty wagers are not enough, as the variance could skew the results.
Apply Proper Bankroll Management
Since variance was brought up, it’s time to talk about bankroll management. Even the most successful NFL bettors need to apply a proper staking plan and take care of their money.
You will inevitably have bad streaks when Lady Luck is against you. If you place too much money on every bet, several defeats would be enough to wipe out your entire bankroll.
You need to make sure that doesn’t happen by betting only a small chunk of it. The exact percentage depends on different factors. The most important among them are the expected value and the probability of success.
The higher each of those is, the more adventurous you can be and vice versa. A good example of a method that uses that logic are bankroll management strategies based on the Kelly Criterion.
The tips and tricks covered in this article won’t make you an instant winner in NFL betting. They are designed to show you the road to success but to get there, you need to work hard. There’s no such thing as easy money in gambling, so don’t expect to simply become rich overnight by betting on sports.